When Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes acquired center Kirby Dach from the Chicago Blackhawks, the deal came with some risk.
Not only did the Canadiens pay a handsome fee for the young center, including a 2022 first-round pick, but they also quickly signed him to a four-year contract extension.
This was a fantastic opportunity for the Fort Saskatchewan native.
“It’s almost a reboot for me,” Dach said. “The biggest takeaway I have coming here is to play free, be creative, trust myself around the net, shoot more pucks and be that dual threat player that I want to become. , trying to get past the last three years and put it behind me.
“I talked to Marty about playing here and having an open mind. I have to prove myself and enjoy the game of hockey again.
Hughes, still the technician, was confident in his acquisition, despite Dach’s relatively disappointing production and poor underlying numbers.
“Before every transaction we have made, we take our time to do our due diligence,” Hughes said Sept. 7. “We are comfortable with the potential of Kirby Dach. There is no such thing as being 100% certain in this business. But we think it has a lot of potential, we believe in this environment, with our coach, with our development group, with the character in our locker room, it’s a better environment for Dach, and in that environment, we’re confident he’ll do great things in the Montreal Canadiens organization.
“Do we know 100%? No, but we’re willing to bet on it. ”
With 5 points in 9 games, the bet seems to imply a good return on investment, as Dach is on track to set a career high in points and assists.
Kirby’s Dream Land, population: @CanadiensMTL Fans. 🤩
Kirby Dach’s (@kdach77) first as Hab is the @Energizer Winner of the OT! pic.twitter.com/799jIogQWO
— NHL (@NHL) October 18, 2022
When it comes to a 21-year-old player like Dach, there’s no doubt that production is important, but perfecting a process that will allow you to maintain that production is also necessary.
And that’s where Dach upped his overall game by leaps and bounds.
Advanced potential
Joining a new team is never easy, and there is often a learning curve that requires a grace period to allow the new player to adjust to their new teammates and coaching staff.
This was not the case for Kirby Dach.
Right off the bat, he produced the kind of underlying numbers you’d expect from a player who’s spent years and years studying the concepts he’s tasked with applying in game situations.
Consider this: Dach currently ranks second among all forwards with a CF% of 55.7. This means that when Dach is on the ice, the Canadians control 55.7% of the shots.
To give you an idea of how impressive that is, on average the team themselves only control just over 49% of the shots, and only five attackers have managed to push their overall shot control to more. 50% at this stage of the season.
Last season, the Blackhawks managed to control just 45.6 percent of shots with Dach on the ice.
When it comes to controlling high-quality chances, during Dach’s shifts the Canadiens control 53.5% of high-risk scoring chances, making him one of only two forwards on the team who are currently on the right side of 50%.
And even more impressively, Dach currently sits at 57.7% xGF%, the team’s best mark.
Expected Goals for Percentage (xGF%) is a shot-based statistic, but those shots were weighted based on the quality of the shot, including factors such as type of shot, location, whether the shot was taken in a hurry or even a rebound.
It tends to reveal if the production of a certain actor is sustainable. And in the case of Dach, sustainability seems to be on the menu. At this point, it’s probably closer to a sustainable all-you-can-eat buffet.
As Hughes said, there are no guarantees in hockey, but despite paying a high price to acquire Kirby Dach from the Chicago Blackhawks, early feedback indicates it was a wise bet for the Montreal Canadiens.
(All stats are 5v5 unless otherwise stated, via NaturalStatTrick)
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