Losing streaks to the Arizona Coyotes and back-to-back losses to the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre: two things that have lasted four games too long for the Maple Leafs.
Your game in 10:
1. The Maple Leafs got off to a perfect start a minute into the game thanks to a nice goal by Mark Giordano, whose stellar career was recognized before the game on Hockey Day in Canada broadcast from Owen Sound, where Giordano played junior. He started the breakout with one more little bump pass Austin Matthews through the middle of the defensive zone, lifted up the ice to get numbers into the rush, took a pass from Matthews as a trailer and buried it with a good shot to the low blocker.
It was a quality finish that served as a reminder that Giordano has scored 21 goals as a defenseman before in this league (and had a 17-goal, 74-point season as recently as 2019).
MARKY G!!! 🗣 pic.twitter.com/aCZkknvQt9
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) January 22, 2023
2. The stats ended up being completely one-sided for the Leafs at the end of the opening 20 minutes, but the shots were actually 3-3 as late as 12 minutes in. The Leafs had some nice rushes and looked dangerous in some quick transitions, but they were mostly clear and didn’t manage much time in the offensive zone. The first 12-13 minutes were fairly evenly played until a couple of really nice shifts from Bobby McMann – David Kampf – Pierre Engvall the line began to tilt the ice and create some speed.
In the wake of that momentum, Calle Jarnkrok picked up a back door that was dropped in after a nice rush Mitch Marner and good activation down the wall + back-post pass from Conor Timmins2-0. The fourth line followed up the third line with some good shifts, including drawing a penalty late in the period.
Wait until you see this Timmins apple 🍎 pic.twitter.com/TdMbYroQh3
— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) January 22, 2023
The Leafs’ top two lines hadn’t dominated per se, but they each contributed a goal in the first period, the bottom six gave the Leafs some energy and the defense had activated nicely to create a couple of goals. Toronto led 15-4 in shots, 22-6 in shot attempts and 2-0 on the scoreboard at the end of the 20 minutes. Everything seemed to go according to script with a solid team effort to take care of business against an injury depleted Habs team.
3. The second period was uncharacteristically lifeless from the Leafs, who are usually a dominant team with the long shift but owned just 12% of the expected goals in one of their worse periods of the season.
I’m not sure if they thought the Habs would go down at 2-0, but the Leafs played at march speed for too long in the middle 20 after the Habs went up 2-1. That hasn’t been the Canadiens’ MO very often under Martin St. Louis to give up a game – and that certainly hasn’t been their MO against the Leafs at the Bell Center in recent years. Not showing much killer instinct at HNIC in a barn where the Leafs have left with their tails between their legs too often in recent seasons was a little disappointing. The Habs were just the hungrier team in the period.
4. It didn’t help that the Leafs conceded so early in the second period to give the Habs some faith again (shots were 17-4 at the time for Toronto).
In the midst of another offensive zone shift for the McMann – Kampf – Engvall line, Mark Giordano narrowly missed, though Bobby McMann covered for him to track back. McMann and Justin Holl however, did not kill the play inside the defensive blue line along the wall. Rem Pitlick was able to make a play in the middle of the ice to Nick Suzuki, who got Josh Anderson to stretch along the far wing for a one-timer that he made no mistake on.
It might have been a cleaner 3-on-3 solution if Giordano shaded closer to Anderson coming back, but it was a play that should have been killed on the wall before it ever happened with the Leafs’ numbers in the area.
It never fails, by the way. Anderson produces like a 30-40 point player against the rest of the league and becomes an All-Star against the Leafs.
5. After the game, it was interesting to hear Sheldon Keefe single out a shift with 13 minutes left in the second as a particularly bad sequence from the team. It was the shift where it was a minor miracle that the Habs didn’t make it 2-2; Ilya Samsonov made three or four saves in quick succession, one of which he knew nothing about when he was down on the ice when the puck hit him in the side of the head.
The Leafs top line of Michael Bunting – Austin Matthews – William Nylander was on the ice for that shift as well Rasmus Sandin – Conor Timmins pairing, and they stood around flat-footed in the defensive zone as the Habs aggressively attacked the net with little resistance. When the top line came back to the bench, Keefe gave them a death stare and chewed them out as they hung their heads. He seemed to stare at Nylander, in particular — possibly because he let Josh Anderson skate right by him untouched to get to a loose puck in front.
It was about going through the motions of the Leafs’ stars at points in that middle frame.
6. The 2-2 goal for the Habs came on another rough shift in the second period from the top line plus Ramus Sandin – Conor Timmins mating. It was a broken play where Sandin swiped the loose puck and it snuck to Michael Pezzetta, whose shot left a rebound for Rafael Harvey-Pinard to finish (no chance for Ilya Samsonov).
Initially, there was a bit of a miscommunication on the 3v3 situation from the Leafs; Sandin waved after Michael Bunting to pick up Harvey-Pinard, who was not picked up and would have had an open net if the first pass connected (they were a little lucky when the pass hit Bunting’s skate). After the bounce of Bunting’s skate and the missed sweep by Sandin, Harvey-Pinard still ended up finishing the play in tight.
7. One line that gave the Leafs some really good and consistent efforts in this game was Bobby McMann – David Kampf – Pierre Engvall trio. They played a role in getting the Leafs going in the first period before the 2-0 goal (as mentioned earlier) and nearly won the game for them in the third period.
McMann’s excellent forecheck should have led to a go-ahead for Kampf. McMann got on the puck, caught Samuel Montembeault out of his crease and threw it out for a great scoring chance. A TV timeout ensued, and Keefe held that line there afterward for the next offensive-zone faceoff.
McMann is still without a point through five games, but he has created enough opportunities with his quick and physical straight line game and his second effort plays on the forecheck to have a couple of points with a bit more luck. He has a 61% on-ice shot percentage and a 66% xGF percentage through five games – a small and rather meaningless sample, but both numbers lead the team, just to put an end to how much time he has spent on the right end of ice rink
8. The third period was mostly a pretty good response from the Leafs coming off their sleepy second period, but they couldn’t solve Montembeault. They controlled over 75% of shot attempts and over 85% of expected goals in the final 20 minutes.
After they failed to capitalize, it was almost a season-opening repeat with a late losing goal in the final three minutes. Kirby Dach broke in alone on Ilya Samsonov, who made a good road save. During some four-on-four action, Joel Edmundson stepped into the first on a clean draw loss by the Leafs for a howitzer from the top of the circle that Samsonov fought off. After a late William Nylander high-sticking penalty in the offensive zone, Suzuki went around Mark Giordano and was alone during a four-on-three power play for Montreal, but Samsonov was there again. On the same power play, Dach rang in the post with Samsonov beaten.
Samsonov came up with some huge saves to save the point in what was a physically demanding game for him in net. In addition to taking some hard shots high up to the neck/face area and having the Habs jam in his head during a scramble in the second period, there were two plays late in the third where he took a couple more licks. Kirby Dach ran at him – the referee gestured that it was a force-in by Austin Matthews — before Dach (again) and Mike Hoffman crashed the net and clipped Samsonov just seconds later.
Samsonov really hung in and fought to make sure the Leafs got out of Montreal with at least a point. The response from his teammates in the moments after he took those knocks wasn’t the most emphatic.
9. Three-on-three OT started as planned with David Kampf won the opening faceoff, the Leafs held the puck and Kampf left the ice for Austin Matthews. Matthews had a semi-dangerous curl-and-drag in the left circle that Montembeault stopped, but the majority of chances afterward went to the Habs before the Rem Pitlick winner. It was a long shift too John Tavareswho played defense against Pitlick’s fresh legs and did little to disturb the winning shot, which was well placed into the top corner.
One point was wasted and the Leafs fell to 4-7 in three-on-three OT this season.
10. Elliotte Friedman linked Vladislav Gavrikov to the Leafs (and Oilers) at the second break of the HNIC. It’s a move that makes sense provided there is some insurance around a contract extension, and Jarmko Kekäläinen is reportedly allowing interested teams to talk about a contract with Gavrikov.
If you project the Leafs defense for the next 18 months, Jake Muzzin seems unlikely to return at this point, although we’re getting closer to the time when we’ll get a more concrete update on his status (expected sometime in February). Justin Holl is currently a pending UFA. TJ Brodie turns 33 next season and plays the final year of his contract. Mark Giordano will turn 40 and play in his senior year.
There is sound logic to the Leafs proactively exploring the market for an aging defenseman (Gavrikov is 27) who can handle tough minutes inside the top four. If they could add one to help with the 2023 playoffs in the process, it would definitely better set them up to take on opposition with the star power and depth of Boston and Tampa.
At $2.8 million, Gavrikov isn’t too hard to fit under the cap, especially if the Leafs could convince Columbus to hold on to some money for the rest of the season. I also don’t necessarily see it as an either-or thing with a back versus a forward. Muzzin (probably) remaining on LTIR gives the Leafs some cap space, and they should be creative with retention. They have 12 picks in the next two drafts – including both first rounds – as well as some coveted prospects.
Look no further than Joe Sakic’s 2022 trade deadline for an example of a GM filling multiple needs (a top-four D in Josh Manson, a top-six wing in Artturi Lehkonen, and veteran depth up front in Andrew Cogliano) and being rewarded for it in June. Sakic negotiated 50% retention on these three acquisitions, moved out Tyson Jost’s $2 million, gave up two second picks, a fifth pick, 2020 25th overall pick Justin Barron (RHD), and 2019 47th overall pick Drew Helleson (RHD) ). He did it all without his 2022 first-round pick as a trade chip (it was dealt in the Darcy Kuemper trade the summer before).
In a division this tough, it will probably take the right series of moves in the same way for the Leafs to succeed in meeting the challenge.
There are some huge oms here, for sure. What is the acquisition cost? The Ben Chiarot trade price (first + fourth + mediocre prospect) that begs the first question here is rich, but the Manson price (second round, prospect) seems more at the height of a real conversation. Also, how big of a contract offer will it take to keep Gavrikov from testing the open waters? All that said, Dubas doing their due diligence on this makes sense to me.
Heat map: 5v5 shot attempts
Game flow: 5v5 shot attempts
#Game #Ugly #period #erases #twogoal #lead #Maple #Leafs #lose #Bell #Center
